COP28: Success or failure?
COP28 could not conclude on December 12. After overnight consultations, on the morning of December 13, the final version of the document (hereinafter referred to as version 12.13) was released1 and approved in the subsequent plenary session. While the President took pride in naming the world's first GST result as "UAE Consensus" (UAE Consensus). However, Samoa's statement as the representative of the Small Island States Group made us realize that this was an "absentee consensus," and its legitimacy would be somewhat questionable.
Anne Rasmussen, Samoa's representative, declared: "We don't want to disrupt the enthusiastic applause as we enter the room, but we're a bit puzzled: you just hit the gavel, and the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) is not in the room" (Photo by IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis)
Analysis of preliminary results.
COP28, the 28th United Nations Climate Summit, ended with mixed opinions. Most world leaders praised the efforts of COP28 President Sultan Jaber, CEO of the largest state-owned oil company in the United Arab Emirates, in promoting significant agreements among the participating parties.
Below is a preliminary analysis of the comparison between versions 12.112 and 12.13, and the expressions and comparisons of energy transitions between the two versions presented in Table 1.
Version 12.11 | Version 12.13 | Changes between the two versions | |
Focus area 1: Fossil fuels | |||
1) On coal | Rapidly reduce the number of non-end-of-pipeline coal production facilities and restrict permits for the construction of new non-end-of-pipeline coal power plants. | Accelerate efforts to eliminate non-end-of-pipeline coal power plants. | Version 12.11 improved expression, and Version 12.13 reverts to COP26 wording |
2) On fossil energy | Reduce the consumption and production of fossil energy fairly, orderly, and reasonably to achieve net-zero emissions around 2050, consistent with scientific requirements. | Equitably, orderly, and reasonably transition fossil energy out of the energy system, driving action in this crucial decade to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 according to science. | Version 12.13 applies "transition," with a stronger sense than "reduce" in Version 12.11, but fossil energy is limited to the "energy system," simultaneously increasing urgency in the 2020s |
Focus area 2: End-use technology | Rapidly push non-emitting and low-emitting technologies, especially renewable energy, nuclear energy, end-of-pipeline emission reduction technologies, and carbon removal such as CCUS and low-carbon hydrogen, thereby enhancing efforts to replace end-of-lifecycle fossil fuel technologies in alternative energy systems. | Rapidly push non-emitting and low-emitting technologies, especially renewable energy, nuclear energy, end-of-pipeline emission reduction technologies, and carbon removal such as CCUS, especially in hard-to-reduce emission areas, and low-carbon hydrogen production. | Version 12.13 adds limitations on the scope of end-use technologies, including "hard-to-reduce emission areas" |
Focus area 3: Peak not later than 2025 | It is acknowledged that achieving the 1.5°C target requires the global peak of greenhouse gas emissions not later than 2025, a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, a 60% reduction in emissions by 2035, and achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. | According to assumptions and global model pathways in the comprehensive IPCC AR6 report, in scenarios achieving the 1.5 and 2-degree targets, global emissions will peak between 2020 and 2025, not later than 2025. It should also be noted that this does not mean all countries will peak during this period. This period may change due to sustainable development, poverty reduction, and other requirements, while also requiring technical and financial capacity building support. | Version 12.13 still maintains the statement of "peak not later than 2025" but introduces more limitations, including describing model assumptions, the need for technical funds, etc. |
Other | |||
1) On renewable energy | Set a target to triple global renewable energy installation capacity and triple the rate of global energy efficiency improvement by 2030. | By 2030, we will triple global renewable energy installation capacity and triple the rate of global energy efficiency improvement. | No change |
2) On energy system transition | Rapidly push global efforts toward net-zero emission energy systems, deploy non-emitting fuels and low-emission carbon removal technologies before or in between this world. | Rapidly push global efforts toward net-zero emission energy systems, deploy non-emitting fuels and low-emission carbon removal technologies before or in between this world. | No significant change, emphasizing net-zero carbon emission systems over non-carbon energy systems for the first time |
3) On fossil fuel subsidies | Eliminate as quickly as possible inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not contribute to poverty reduction and fair transition. | Accelerate efforts to eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not contribute to poverty reduction and fair transition, in a manner that ensures support for affected communities and takes into account different nationalities and regionsthor | Version 12.13 has added more details to ensure support for affected communities and address regional differences |
Table 1: Comparison of expressions and comparisons of energy transitions between versions 12.11 and 12.13
Overall, version 12.13 is an improvement over version 12.11, as are the compromises. Fossil energy is much expected, its ultimate expression is "transformation", which seems to be enhanced rather than "reducing production and consumption", especially the direction is very clear, but it is only limited term in the "energy system", leading people to wonder whether the "non-energy uses" of fossil fuels, i.e. fossil energy used as chemical feedstock, are being systematically ignored. secret or not. You must know that in the context of energy transition, fossil energy companies have largely abandoned the technical path of burning primary products as fuel, and have taken the coal petrochemical and chemical industries as their other battlefield. Interpretations of this provision may vary.
For downstream processing facilities, the latest text identifies application scenarios of the relevant technologies, which is an improvement over the original text. But all the talk of "net-zero" is deliberately about "emissions" rather than fossil fuels, partly reflecting the prevailing narrative in the negotiations: we need to reduce emissions , not fossil fuels (so end-of-line technology is important).
The claim that global emissions will peak no later than 2025 has become delicately balanced. Strangely enough, version 12.13 suddenly appeared with a description of “transitional energy,” which was supposed to be a compromise for a new gas-fired power plant.
In addition, version 12.13 provides arrangements for Parties to update their NDC1 and long-term low emissions strategies as far as possible consistent with scientific requirements, using the words "requests". and "urge", respectively, have a stronger tone than "call on" used in the above terms.
Summary
Receiving many mixed opinions about the "unprecedented" climate conference announced by the COP28 President. Most of them gave positive comments - which is not easy to achieve in today's world of geographical conflicts, and some criticized the conference's results as full of "holes", esp. is to “greenwash” the oil and gas industry, for example by emphasizing end-of-line technologies and reducing methane emissions (instead of burning CO₂). emissions) camouflage to extend the life of fossil fuels. In fact, it was inevitable that COP28 President Sultan Jaber was the CEO of the largest state-owned oil company in the United Arab Emirates, and could not take his own life, and that his leadership The first GST leader to successfully complete the task is a merit.
Repeated revisions and careful wording have given the climate negotiations a "play on words" that has left the outside world skeptical and frustrated. It can only be said that there is a natural gap between scientific understanding and political consensus, scientists have a simple task and decision makers face chaotic problems, and all political consultation can do is try its best to bridge the gap. However, all countries need to understand that the document adopted by the COP is only the "biggest common convention" of nearly 200 parties with very different interests, and is no longer enough to objectively reflect the urgency and ability energy conversion.
Reference source:
1. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2023_L17_adv.pdf
2. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/GST_2.pdf