The risk of climate change is increasing and the need to adapt to climate change is urgent
From a global perspective, climate change has become a serious challenge for human society today. Since the beginning of summer this year, extreme weather phenomena such as high temperatures and heavy rain have occurred regularly in our country, damage and risks due to climate change continue to increase. Adapting to change Climate change is an effective measure to reduce climate risks and has become a practical and urgent task for all countries, especially developing countries.
Risks and losses due to climate change are increasing
1. Extreme climate phenomena due to climate change occur frequently, posing increasingly serious threats to economic development, society and the global ecological environment.
Global climate change, especially extreme events such as frequent heat waves, droughts and floods, has had widespread negative impacts on ecosystem structure , geographic range of species, water and food, health and livelihoods, urban infrastructure, etc. 3.3 to 3.6 billion people around the world live in areas at risk of Highly vulnerable to climate change. 50% of species migrate to the poles and highlands. A quarter of natural lands face longer wildfire seasons and half the population faces severe water shortages (IPCC, 2022).
From 1970 to 2021 , there have been 11,778 disasters caused by extreme weather, climate and water events, causing more than 2 million deaths and economic losses of up to 4.3 trillion USD (WMO, 2023). ;Taking extreme heat waves as an example, the number of extreme heat waves has increased by 232% in the past 20 years (UNDRR, 2020). In 2022, Europe experienced its “hottest summer in history”, with nearly 62,000 people dying from heat-related illnesses (Ballester et al., 2023).
Since the beginning of this summer, record high temperatures have been set in Europe, North America, Asia and other regions, seriously affecting human health, industrial production, agriculture and economic activities. Highest temperature in Aconchi town, Mexico up to 49°C, high hot weather in the US affected about 66 million people, 2/3 of the groundwater in France was below normal water levels and forest fires occurred in some areas; 128 of South Korea's 180 regions declare severe heatwave Early warning: Thailand's sugar output drops 7% to 10%. On July 6, the global average temperature was 17.23° C, could become "the hottest day on earth" in 125,000 years and 2023 could become the hottest year on record.
2. These Risks and losses caused by climate change will continue to increase in the coming time, implementing measures to adapt to climate change is urgent.Even if the emission reduction targets proposed by many countries are completely achieved, rising global temperatures will still be an inevitable trend. Without adaptation measures, climate losses will will continue to increase.
If global temperatures increase by 1.5°C, many climate disasters will certainly become more severe and bring more risks to ecosystems and society. human society, which has 127 serious risks, which can be summarized as low-altitude coastal, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, are very important. The eight categories include infrastructure, living standards, food security, water security, peace and mobility (IPCC, 2022).
Even if temperature increases are controlled between 1.5°C and 2°C, six "climate tipping points" will still be exceeded, including the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, the disappearance of ice in Greenland and West Antarctica. -latitudinal reefs and sudden large-scale permafrost thaw. These key point changes will cause many systemic effects, such as the rapid intensification and amplification of physical layer effects of climate and ecosystems, which will bring enormous irreparable losses to the existence and development of human society (O'Grady, 2022).
By 2030, 37.6 million people will live in extreme poverty due to the impacts of climate change in the best-case scenario, while in the worst-case scenario, climate change will push an additional 100 million people into poverty (UNDRR, 2022). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has designed a new generation of scenarios, called the Representative Concentration Pathways ( RCP).
Adaptation to climate change is an effective measure to reduce climate risks
1. Climate risk mitigation is an important goal of climate change adaptation, the process of adapting to climate change can beshould be considered a climate risk management process.
In the report of the Sixth Assessment Working Group II, the IPCC defines climate change adaptation as “ In human systems, adaptation is the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate impacts to minimize damage or take advantage of favorable opportunities. system, adaptation is the adjustment that actually affects the climate, with human intervention playing a supporting role” (IPCC, 2022).
This definition clarifies the goal of climate change adaptation, i.e. the actual or expected impacts of climate change. The definition also states that the goal of adaptation is to seek benefits and avoid harms, to seek Benefits are to make the most of the favorable conditions and opportunities brought about by climate warming, and harm avoidance is to effectively minimize the adverse impacts and damages of climate change. bring. about natural systems and human societies.
Climate change risks are defined as the potential adverse consequences of climate change for humans or ecosystems (IPCC , 2022). Therefore, an important goal of climate change adaptation is to reduce risks caused by climate change. Climate change risks originate from extreme climate events extreme or negative impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, i.e. climate change, catastrophic climate events or the interaction between the two over a specific period of time can and has an impact on the economy. , ecology, industry, Potential adverse consequences for agriculture, hydrology, urban life, health, culture, infrastructure, etc.
Gas change risks climate arises from the combination of climate-generated hazards and the exposure and vulnerability of humans and natural systems. In the process of generating climate change risks climate change, climate change is the factor causing disasters, nature and human society are the subjects that suffer disasters.
First, climate change as a catastrophic elements, which are a source of risk and will cause harm to nature and human society; second, disaster subjects are targeted by disaster factors, which include two attributes: exposure and vulnerability. When disaster-causing factors impact on the subjects exposed to disasters, risks can only arise after the intersection of hazards, vulnerabilities and exposures. According to the process of creating climate risks, subjects With some climate disasters, reducing the vulnerability or exposure of disaster-affected entities is the main way to reduce climate risk.
Adaptation to climate change Climate change can effectively reduce the climate vulnerability and risk of humans and natural systems through technology, policy and strategy. Therefore, The process of adapting to climate change can be seen as a process of climate risk management. Understanding climate change risks is the premise and basis for adaptation actions, Identifying and assessing climate change risks is a scientific tool to adapt to climate change.
2. Major countries around the world promote the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to adapt to climate change and manage climate risks in policies and mechanisms.
More than 20 countries, including France, the UK and Canada, have launched their own adaptation strategies and action plans. UK, US and other countries Other countries have also established adaptation committees or inter-sectoral adaptation working groups to promote the implementation of national adaptation strategies and plans.
In addition to arranging Adaptation-related research in major international research plans such as the World Climate Research Plan, many countries have also implemented adaptation research at the national level. For example, Japan issued "Orientation for developing technology to build a new society adapted to climate change" and implementing special research such as "Research plan to adapt to climate change"; Australia invested 126 million USD to implement the "Climate Change Adaptation Plan" and establish the "National Adaptation Research Plan".
In addition, through the promulgation of " German Climate Protection Initiative" and "Australian Government's National Climate Change Adaptation Initiative", many countries share adaptation technology and provide funding support, expanding influence and plays an international leading role in the field of climate change.
In the process of adapting to climate change, integrating climate risk management into policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms coordination has become an international trend. For example, the Hyogo Framework for Action and the Sendai Framework for Action on Disaster Risk Reduction were endorsed by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction.The United Nations adopted the inclusion of climate change in its consideration of disaster mitigation and proposed including disaster risk reduction measures in multilateral and bilateral measures. development support related to climate change adaptation, the Plan reflects the link between climate change adaptation and climate risk management.
After the Climate Conference Copenhagen, reducing natural disaster risks, promoting adaptation to climate change and establishing damage and loss mechanisms gradually attract the attention of the Parties. The proposed Bali Action Plan concludes systematically integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies.
Special report "Managing extreme events and disaster risks to promote Advancing adaptation to climate change" published by the IPCC brings together expertise in the fields of disaster risk management and climate adaptation for the first time to assess human progress in reducing exposure levels. and vulnerability as well as improved adaptive capacity with accumulated experience providing a scientific basis for integrating risk management into the overall framework of climate change adaptation actions .
3. Progress and results have been achieved in planning and implementing climate change adaptation and adaptation measures that have a positive impact on climate risk reduction.
According to the latest IPCC assessment, adaptation planning and implementation continues to increase in all regions of the world (IPCC, 2022). At least 170 countries Countries around the world have integrated adaptation actions into their climate policies and planning processes. Climate change adaptation measures play a positive role in reducing climate risks climate.
These adaptation measures are mainly distributed in four main systems: land, oceans and ecosystems, urban and rural infrastructure systems, energy and cross-sectoral systems, including 23 measures such as coastal protection and fortification, improving agricultural land management and natural disaster risks. They primarily target eight key risk categories, including terrestrial and marine ecosystems, critical infrastructure, living standards, food security and water security, as well as cross-cutting risks.
For example, improving natural water retention and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), land use changes and planned resettlement can reduce flood risk due to climate warming; Sustainable forest management can reduce the risk of forests from pests, diseases and wildfires; Temperature health action plans for early warning and response systems can reduce the risk of extreme heat; Reducing the exposure of water resources and sanitation systems to floods and climate extremes is an effective adaptation measure for waterborne and foodborne diseases. Measures Adaptation can also bring many benefits while promoting sustainable development, such as improving agricultural productivity, reform and innovation, health and wellbeing, food security and biodiversity protection. study.
IPCC also evaluates the feasibility of adaptation measures from six aspects. The results show the feasibility of adaptation from 5 aspects of technology, economics, and society , environmental and geophysical aspects are mainly at medium to high level, while the adaptation feasibility of institutional aspect is mainly at medium to low level. Among them, three adaptation measures are Forest-based response, resilient power systems, and energy reliability are highly feasible, while resettlement and planned resettlement have low feasibility (Qin Yun et al., 2022).
Adaptation to climate change is an urgent need
1. Adaptation to climate change is an important part of addressing climate change and is a real and urgent task facing developing countries.
Addressing climate change is divided into two aspects: mitigation and adaptation, both of which are indispensable. Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, which can effectively reduce concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But even if measures to reduce emissions are implemented, the trend of rising temperatures will continue.
According to "Closed Windows - Crisis The climate crisis urgently requires rapid social transformation" (UNEP, 2022) announced by the United Nations Environment Program. With current emission reduction strategies applied by many countries, by the end of this century, The temperature will increase by 2.8°C compared to before the industrial revolution. And in the process of reducing emissions, the impacts that have already occurred on the climate will not be eliminated, potential climate risks hidden is still accumulating, even due to the lag effect of the earth system, the climate will decline in a certain period after the global disaster. achieve peak carbon and eCarbon neutrality. The impact of changes will continue.
Climate change adaptation measures can effectively reduce the adverse impacts and risks caused by climate change and is a realistic option to deal with climate change. Many developing countries are vulnerable to climate impacts because of their geographical location and climate types, and because of the support With weak financial and technical resources and a lack of adequate adaptive capacity, these countries often face huge risks of climate change.
2. Adaptation to climate change is an important topic in international climate negotiations and an important part of global climate governance.
How to promote climate change adaptation actions, enhance the adaptive capacity of developing countries and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in accordance with the Framework Convention of the United Nations on climate change (UNFCCC, hereinafter referred to as the Convention) is always a concern of developing countries... important issues.
The issue of adaptation Responding to climate change as an important negotiation content starting from the "Bali Action Plan" adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP13) of the 13th Convention. This plan for the first time emphasized clearly to both mitigation and adaptation to climate change (Li Yu'e, 2010), suggesting “adaptation”, mitigation, capital and technology” as “four wheels” to solve the problem of change climate. Global action plans on adaptation were promoted in the Cancun Adaptation Framework and the subsequent Paris Agreement. Negotiations on the Convention have made great progress in areas of Adaptation Commission, National Adaptation Plans, Adaptation Financing Mechanisms and the Global Assessment of Collective Action on Adaptation.
COP27 adopted the Sharm el- Implementation Plan Sheikh and his decision to establish a damage and loss fund, which has become the latest highlight of international climate negotiations. At the same time, climate change adaptation has become a focus of international cooperative initiatives and actions. The "Glasgow Joint Declaration between China and the United States on Strengthening Climate Action in the 21st Century in the 2020s" acknowledges the importance of adaptation with climate change in addressing the climate crisis, will further discuss global adaptation goals and promote their effective implementation as well as expand actionable adaptation capacity for developing countries, capacity building and financial support.
The "Joint Declaration of the 30th BASIC Ministerial Conference on Climate Change" emphasizes that adaptation is core of the Paris Agreement and calls for accelerating implementation of global adaptation goals and further reflecting the balance between adaptation and mitigation in overall international financial support. .
3. Adaptation to climate change is an important part of the United Nations climate assessment and is also a leading hot topic in science and technology in the world.
Adaptation to climate change is an important assessment content of the IPCC. IPCC has specifically established a second working group on "Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability" to analyze vulnerability. vulnerability to climate change, consequences caused by climate change, adaptation options, as well as vulnerability, adaptive capacity and sustainable development, the interactions between them are assessed. price.
Since the IPCC issued its assessment report in 1990, the scientific and international community's understanding of climate change adaptation has continuously been enriched. and more deeply in the six reports. In particular, the Third Assessment Report adds content on the allocation of adaptive capacity, the Fourth Assessment Report begins to distinguish between system adaptation natural and human systems, the Fifth Assessment Report emphasizes reducing the risks of climate change through adaptation and proposed concepts as the Sixth Assessment Report deepens the idea on integrating adaptation and mitigation to support climate-resilient development.
In addition, climate change adaptation has become a hot topic in the community science at home and abroad in recent years. "Future Earth", "Earth Alliance" and "World Climate Research Program" (WCRP) jointly announced "10 new insights on climate science 2022", where climate risk, climate security and resilience development, etc., are all concerns for climate change adaptation. my country has announced the "Top Ten Scientific Facts on Climate Change in 2022". Among them, the scientific framework on climate risk, climate tipping points and national climate change adaptation strategies are all important developments in the field of adaptation.
Recommended increaseg strengthen action to adapt to climate change
1. Effectively implement the principle of "paying equal attention to adaptation and mitigation" and enhance the strategic position of climate change adaptation in the country's socio-economic development.
Fully consider the binding impact of climate change on survival and development, and consider climate change and its risks as an important decision-making factor in regulation. economic and social development plans, major projects and infrastructure construction.
First, understand the importance of adaptation from the perspective of integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, while incorporating climate change adaptation into major strategic implementations such as maximum carbon neutrality, regional coordinated development strategies and sustainable development strategies, combining with national strategy. New strategic needs promote the integration of climate change adaptation.
Second is to strengthen evaluation of the implementation of climate change adaptation policies and improve the system assessing adaptation policy, enhancing the fit between climate change adaptation policy objectives and adaptation resources, matching appropriate human, financial and material resources, and promote the implementation of climate change adaptation policies. climate change adaptation policy.
Third is to implement and strengthen risk assessment and impacts of climate change on large projects such as highways and railways. highways, irrigation and hydropower, power grid projects, ecological projects, coastal projects, energy projects and agricultural, urban and other infrastructure construction, and conduct a full climate debate to improve adaptation to climate change.
2. Focus on key research links on climate change risks and strengthen scientific research capacity on climate change adaptation.
Conduct research Special research on the theory and technology of climate change adaptation based on risk assessment, establishing a research system covering the entire innovation chain "climate change response mechanism-assessment model" climate risk assessment – a pathway to climate change adaptation”, strengthening connections between different research linkages and enhancing adaptive capacity Relevance and practicability of transformative measures climate provides scientific and technological support to my country to respond to climate change and achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
In the climate change response mechanism climate change, conduct research on mechanisms at micro and regional scales, conduct research on common technologies such as detecting, attributing and predicting climate change and extreme events analysis, analyze the impact mechanism of climate change on different systems, and reveal the causes of climate change risks.
In linking risk assessment models climate risk, develop methods to optimize regional climate models and build a climate risk assessment model system based on a mutual feedback mechanism on hazards, exposure levels and Vulnerability in key adaptation sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water and human resources. medical, as well as high-tech Conduct downscaling research in non-traditional sectors such as scaled renewable energy systems to achieve a quantitative assessment of climate change risks and zoning risks under different climate scenarios.
On the path to adapting to climate change, carry out research and development of adaptation technologies mainly in the fields of ecosystems natural environment, socio-economic systems and important infrastructure, compile and update a list of climate change adaptation technologies and technology roadmaps, conduct research on key mechanisms adaptation policies for socio-economic systems, conducting management, integration and technology demonstration in climate change sensitive areas and key socio-economic development areas.